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A paradoxical 2017 awaits us! January 2017 issue

A paradoxical 2017 awaits us!

On one hand, we lament over India’s reduced exports, and on the other, we see no 'social justice' in giving our exporters enough to even cover their input costs in the form of remission and incentive schemes.

Steven Philip Warner | January 2017 Issue | The Dollar Business

When 2016 began, the world trade community had just braved a cold and icy year. TDB's January 2016 issue titled, ‘2016: Are we regressing?’ summed the low-key expectations from 2016 quite well. Based on a comprehensive consideration of various past situations and expected scenarios (simulative analyses), TDB Intelligence Unit had then made a few forecasts about what the year ahead would mean for foreign trade and policy. They were predictions however, and most of which could have been off targets.

Strangely, economics held its ground. So did our forecasts.

Forecast 1: “The world will see another 1,000,000 barrels per day being added to its oil supply tank, worsening the glut. In what range will oil prices oscillate? Between the floor support of $40 pb and ceiling of $60 pb. And $100 pb? Leave that for 2018.”
What has resulted? As on Dec 21, 2016, Crude oil futures (for January to December 2017 settlement) range between $51.90 and $55.72 per barrel (bbl), while Brent crude futures range between $55.21 and $57.31/bbl.
Our take for 2017? We expect oil prices to appreciate, with many OPEC nations recently promising a disciplined approach to production (proving the cartel is still alive!). Crude could easily break through the $60/bbl benchmark in 2017 and could oscillate in the $60 to $80/bbl range.

Forecast 2: “Easy to imagine that the USDINR rate crossing over to the higher side of 70 in 2016 will hurt Indian importers. 2016 could mean ...

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