India new pole of global growth, surpasses China: Harvard study

India new pole of global growth, surpasses China: Harvard study

The economies that are predicted to be fastest growing are India, Indonesia, Turkey and Uganda.

The Dollar Business Bureau

India has emerged as the leader in economic growth on the world stage, surpassing its neighbour China and is likely to keep its lead in the next 10 years, according to a latest study by Harvard University.

India will come on top of the fastest growing economies list till 2025 with an average yearly growth of 7.7%, for a range of reasons, according to the growth projections by Center for International Development (CID) of Harvard University.

“The economic pole of global growth has moved over the past few years from China to neighbouring India, where it is likely to stay over the coming decade,” suggested the study by CID.

The rapid growth prospects of India is attributed to the fact that the country is mainly well-positioned to remain diversifying into the newer fields, given the abilities gathered till date.

The study pointed out that India has advanced into diversifying its base for export and included more complex industries, such as vehicles, chemicals, and some specific electronics.

“The major oil countries are experiencing the downsides for their dependence on only one resource, while economies such as Indonesia, India and Vietnam have developed new capabilities which allow them to explore more diverse and complex output that estimates rapid growth in coming years,” the study added.

“The economies that are predicted to be growing at fastest pace are India, Indonesia, Bulgaria, Turkey and Uganda and are diverse in all geographic, institutional, political and demographic dimensions,” the new research by CID stated.

“What they share is a focus on expanding the capabilities of their workforce that leaves them well positioned to diversify into new products and products of increasingly greater complexity,” it added.

The new growth projections segregated countries into three categories. Firstly, the countries having very few capabilities for production and can diversify easily into related products.

Secondly, the economies having sufficient capabilities to diversify and make growth easier, including countries such as Indonesia, India and Turkey.

Lastly, the advanced economies such as Germany, Japan and the US which are already producing almost all the existing products, therefore progress will need pushing the technological frontiers of the world by creating new products, a procedure that infers slow growth.

Growth in emerging economies is projected to continue to surpass that of the advanced markets, though not equally, the study pointed out. 

The Dollar Business Bureau - Jul 10, 2017 12:00 IST